On-Time Repayment Rate of First Installments Vs. All Installments

Discussion in 'Announcements' started by Julia Kurnia, Jan 14, 2014.

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  1. Julia Kurnia

    Julia Kurnia Director, Zidisha Zidisha Staff

    Dear all,

    The following chart tracks the evolution of the on-time repayment rate of both first installments, and all installments up until today's date, of loans disbursed during each week during the previous year. It is intended to help estimate the fluctuations in credit risk of loans issued through Zidisha over time.

    The on-time repayment rate is defined more strictly here than the rates published on borrowers' profile pages, in order to allow for more immediate feedback on the variation in on-time repayment rates for recently disbursed loans. Only repayments that are made in full within 24 hours of the due date are counted as on time.

    Tracking the on-time repayment rate of the first installment only is intended to control for any tendency of on-time repayment rates to increase or decrease with time. In practice, the on-time repayment rate of the first installment correlates with the on-time repayment rate over time.

    The most recent data, for loans issued in late December / early January, measures the on-time repayment rate of the loans issued under our most recent criteria, including weekly installments for most countries, and no scanned document upload requirements for new borrowers. Thus far, on-time repayment rates have not declined as a result of these changes.

    Please post comments and questions in this thread. I look forward to the opportunity to discuss further.

    upload_2014-1-14_14-53-19.png
     

    Attached Files:

  2. Mandy

    Mandy Forum Member

    Hi Julia, would you consider releasing some of Zidisha's more recent (de-indentified) raw data? I have an interest in statistics and would enjoy exploring this data.
     
  3. Julia Kurnia

    Julia Kurnia Director, Zidisha Zidisha Staff

    Hi Mandy, we would certainly be open to creating an API that would allow the general public to analyze our data. I understand Kiva has a very good platform for this, and it is on our list of desired future improvements to acquire once our web development resources allow.
     
    Mandy likes this.
  4. Julia Kurnia

    Julia Kurnia Director, Zidisha Zidisha Staff

    Hi Mandy, we would certainly be open to creating an API that would allow the general public to analyze our data. I understand Kiva has a very good platform for this, and it is on our list of desired future improvements to acquire once our web development resources allow.
     
  5. Julia Kurnia

    Julia Kurnia Director, Zidisha Zidisha Staff

    Hi Mandy, we would certainly be open to creating an API that would allow the general public to analyze our data. I understand Kiva has a very good platform for this, and it is on our list of desired future improvements to acquire once our web development resources allow.
     
  6. Julia Kurnia

    Julia Kurnia Director, Zidisha Zidisha Staff

    Dear all,

    Here is the most recent version of the above graph, incorporating data for loans disbursed up until January 25.

    Of the 81 loans funded during the week of January 19 - 25 which have had repayments due, about 60% made their payments within 24 hours of the due date - up from about 40% for loans disbursed during the same week one year ago.

    In analyzing trends in repayment performance over time, we find that the timeliness of the first installment correlates strongly with the likelihood that the full loan will be repaid on time. For this reason, we track the timeliness of the first installment due for newly disbursed loans as a means of detecting quickly any changes in the credit risk of loans being funded through Zidisha.

    Best,

    Julia

    upload_2014-2-9_22-13-52.png
     
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  7. Evelyn

    Evelyn Forum Member

    @Julia Kurnia Maybe it's just the late hour and I'm missing something obvious. Hopefully my question is making sense. But, what is each color line representing? I have the same question for the two colors in the Jan 14 post. If each line is the data for a year, which color line represents which year?
     
  8. Julia Kurnia

    Julia Kurnia Director, Zidisha Zidisha Staff

    Hi Evelyn, you are entirely right: I hadn't noticed that the legend did not copy into the thread along with the rest of the graph.

    The green line is the percentage of FIRST installments that were repaid within 24 hours of due date for loans disbursed during the week specified under the graph. The yellow line is the percentage of ALL installments that were repaid within 24 hours of due date for loans disbursed during the same period.

    For the most recent loans, the two measures are the same thing because only one installment has fallen due so far. For the older loans they may diverge, but are still closely related. This is why we use the timeliness of the first installment as an indicator of trends in the overall risk of loans currently being issued through our platform.
     

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  9. Evelyn

    Evelyn Forum Member

    Thank you for the additional information.
     
  10. Julia Kurnia

    Julia Kurnia Director, Zidisha Zidisha Staff

    Dear all,

    This chart shows our latest timeliness tracking data for loans disbursed in recent weeks. It measures the percentage of installments that were paid within 24 hours of the due date, for loans disbursed during the time period tracked below the chart.

    Note that many installments which were paid slightly late (i.e. two days after the due date) are counted as not paid on time in this chart. We do this to make our tracking system more sensitive to subtle changes in the timeliness of installments paid by newly disbursed loans, and therefore able to provide a quicker warning in the event of any change in the repayment performance of the loans we are issuing.

    The blue line tracks the performance of first installments only. The green line tracks the performance of all installments due to date for the loans issued.

    The latest data show repayment performance remaining steady in recent weeks. It seems that thus far, the removal of the ID card scan and recommendation form requirements, and the introduction of the borrower invite program, has not had an adverse effect on our repayment performance.



    upload_2014-2-28_11-15-27.png
     

    Attached Files:

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  11. muh abdjalil

    muh abdjalil Forum Member

    hy staff,

    can you send back my message?
     
  12. KirstenShute

    KirstenShute Gold Member

    Thank you for the information. It still doesn't match last summer's rate, so I hope it continues to improve. (Of course, there could also be a seasonal effect, that businesses do better at certain times of the year, and thus repayments improve.)
     
  13. Sverre

    Sverre Forum Member

    The statistic recently was 42% repayment "on time" (up to 30 days late)
    now it has declined more to 40.87%

    Kenya repayments seems to be dropping fast after borrowers gets credit for inviting.
    https://www.zidisha.org/index.php?p=43&c=KE
     
  14. Julia Kurnia

    Julia Kurnia Director, Zidisha Zidisha Staff

    Dear all,

    We've added an updated graph tracking first installment on-time repayment rates to the Statistics page. The intent is to make it easier to track trends in our on-time repayment rates over time, especially recent developments which have not yet had time to impact our "Active Loan Statistics" section.

    Best,

    Julia
     
    KirstenShute likes this.
  15. Julia Kurnia

    Julia Kurnia Director, Zidisha Zidisha Staff

    Hi KirstenShute, this is a really interesting question. We spent a great deal of time comparing loans issued during this period with those issued in other periods, in an attempt to discover what made the on-time repayment rate so high. We did not find any clear difference, and can only speculate as to the reason. It may simply have been random fluctuation, which would have had a greater effect at the time because our lending volume was smaller - just around 30-40 loans issued per week.
     
    KirstenShute likes this.
  16. K M

    K M Gold Member

    Would you accept repaid within 14 days as on time? Even with M-Pesa difficulties can arise that are technical rather then delinquent.
     
    asep komaruddin likes this.
  17. asep komaruddin

    asep komaruddin Forum Member

    before, I want to thank you for your help mis,because through Zidisha, now I have a business,and I could repaid my loan soon.I want to ask you mis,how can I communicate with lenders mis,
     
  18. KirstenShute

    KirstenShute Gold Member

    Besides posting on the forum, you can also write comments on your lender account for lenders to see. Does that help?
     
    K M and Wiredfox like this.
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